Par 70 vs Par 72 Courses: How Course Par Shapes Winning Scores

Does a par-70 course really produce a higher winning score than a par 72, or is that just two strokes of arithmetic? I looked at 234 full-field PGA TOUR events from the 2015-2021 seasons, each with a 72-hole winner, and split them by course par, with multi-course pro-am rotas kept as their own group.

The short answer is that par matters, but not in the neat way the scorecard suggests. Par-70 winners averaged −14.3, par-72 winners −15.8, and multi-course events −18.5. That last figure is the one I lean on hardest, both in winning-score markets and on my golf predictions page.

Ground 1Par-70 winners sit closest to par, rotas furthest

This chart sets the field average against the winner for each par group, in strokes to par per 72 holes. On par-70 courses the field averaged +2.3, against +0.2 on par 71 and +0.6 on par 72. The par-70 group is the only one where the typical player finishes clearly over par.

The gap between winner and field barely moves. The winner beat the field average by 16.6 strokes on par-70 courses and by 16.3 on par-72 courses. The whole scale shifts, but the winner's edge over the pack stays about the same.

That tells me a tough par 70 is not more chaotic at the top, just harder for everyone. Multi-course events go the other way: the field itself finishes under par, and the winner reaches −18.5.

Ground 2Raw strokes show par 70 is harder, not shorter

Take par away and look at actual shots. Par-70 winners averaged 265.7 strokes and par-72 winners 272.2, a difference of 6.5 strokes. Four rounds on a par 70 only take eight strokes off the target, so the winning total does not fall as far as the par does.

Par-71 winners averaged 267.7 and the multi-course group 267.8, so those two sit side by side in raw terms despite very different scores to par.

My one real caveat sits here. Par is a label, not a length, the file holds no yardage, and the par-70 group carries most of the U.S. Open and PGA Championship set-ups, so harder majors pull its number up.

Ground 3Single-digit winning scores cluster on par-70 courses

The heatmap breaks every event into four winning-score bands. A winning score of −10 or higher happened in 22.4% of par-70 events and 12.0% of par-72 events, so the grind finish turns up roughly twice as often on the shorter par.

At the low end, −19 or lower came in at 27.6% on par 70, 34.7% on par 71 and 29.3% on par 72. Multi-course events stand apart at 61.5%, the only group where a deep birdie-fest is more likely than not.

Across all events the most common band was −15 to −18 at 29.1%, followed by −11 to −14 at 21.4%. Fair odds for −19 or lower are 3.41 at a par-72 course against 3.62 at a par 70, close enough that I would not pay much for par alone.

Ground 4Ranges and majors explain the par-70 spread

The table puts the averages beside their uncertainty and extremes. Par 70 has a 95% range of ±1.4 over 58 events, including 10 majors, while par 72 has ±1.1 over 75 events with 13 majors. Multi-course is the widest at ±2.0 over 26 events, none of them majors.

The extremes tell the story of set-up. Par 70 ran from −27 all the way to +1, the only group to reach over par, while par 71 held the lowest winning score of −30 and never finished higher than −5.

I read the par-70 spread as two kinds of week sharing one label: ordinary tour stops that play like anywhere else, and championship set-ups that grind everyone down. Knowing which one you face matters more than the number on the card.

Written byMathias Holm

I'm Mathias Holm, based in Copenhagen, and I write the golf tips at horse-racing.tips — pitched at the improving player and built on course fit over the world ranking.

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