Tapeta or Polytrack: Which All-Weather Track Suits Favourites?
The two synthetic surfaces produce identical favourite strike rates. The real differences sit at individual courses and in how the market prices their market leaders.
Written by Saskia van der BergHorse Racing Tips specialist
- Sport
- Horse Racing
- Question
- Do favourites win more often on Tapeta or Polytrack all-weather tracks, and which synthetic course is kindest to them?
- Survey
- UK and Irish racing, June 2024 to December 2025; 3,964 Flat races at six all-weather courses
- 33.3%Tapeta favourites won
- 33.3%Polytrack favourites won
- 36.1%Best course for favourites: Kempton
- 3,964All-weather races analysed
My grandfather used to say the surface tells you less than the course does, and I have rarely seen that put to a cleaner test. Across 3,964 Flat races at six all-weather tracks, I wanted to know whether favourites fare better on Tapeta or on Polytrack, and which synthetic course treats them most kindly.
The headline answer is that the surface makes no difference at all: favourites won 33.3% on Tapeta and 33.3% on Polytrack. The price you pay is another matter, and so is the individual track. Everything here feeds into how I read all-weather cards for my horse racing predictions page, because a flat strike rate can hide a very uneven return.
Ground 1Identical strike rates, but Polytrack favourites are priced shorter
Each row sets the chance the starting price implied against the rate at which favourites actually won. On Tapeta the two figures almost touch: priced at 33.4%, won 33.3%, a gap of −0.1 points. On Polytrack, favourites were priced at 34.6% but still won 33.3%, a gap of −1.3 points.
The difference in win rate between the surfaces is 0.0 points, well inside the combined 95% range of ±3.1 points. All-weather favourites as a group won 33.3%, against 32.9% on turf, which is only slightly better.
View the data: tapeta vs polytrack: favourites priced vs won
| Priced | Won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| All turf Flat races (7,861 favourites) | 33.2% | 32.9% | ±1 |
| All all-weather (3,938 favourites) | 33.9% | 33.3% | ±1.5 |
| Tapeta (2,447 favourites) | 33.4% | 33.3% | ±1.9 |
| Polytrack (1,491 favourites) | 34.6% | 33.3% | ±2.4 |
So the surface does not change how often favourites win. On Polytrack, though, the market leans a little too hard on them, and that is the first thread worth pulling.
Ground 2Kempton tops the six courses, Dundalk sits bottom
Split by course, the picture spreads out. Kempton leads at 36.1%, Wolverhampton and Newcastle sit together at 33.6%, Southwell is at 32.8%, and the other two Polytrack venues, Chelmsford City at 31.9% and Dundalk at 31.1%, fill the bottom two places.
This is where I need to be honest with myself. Each course carries only a few hundred races, so the 95% range on any one of these bars runs roughly ±3 to ±4.5 points. The gap between the top and bottom courses is suggestive rather than settled, and track shape and the type of race each course stages vary just as much as the surface does.
View the data: favourite win % at each all-weather course
| Flat races, June 2024 to December 2025 | |
|---|---|
| Kempton (Polytrack) | 36.1% |
| Wolverhampton (Tapeta) | 33.6% |
| Newcastle (Tapeta) | 33.6% |
| Southwell (Tapeta) | 32.8% |
| Chelmsford City (Polytrack) | 31.9% |
| Dundalk (Polytrack) | 31.1% |
What strikes me is that the best and the two worst courses for favourites all race on Polytrack. That is exactly why the surface average flattens out to nothing.
Ground 3Chelmsford City favourites are overbet; Newcastle's are underbet
The table shows where the money goes wrong. Kempton favourites were priced at 36.0% and won 36.1%, which is close to fair and returned +0.6% to level stakes. Newcastle is the surprise: priced at 32.7%, won 33.6%, returning +4.4%.
Chelmsford City is the outlier at the other end. Its favourites were priced at 35.1% but won just 31.9%, a return of −12.4%. Dundalk, at −6.9%, and Southwell, at −5.8%, also cost money, though less heavily.
| Group | Races | Fav won | Priced | Gap (pts) | Fav return | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kempton | 598 | 36.1% | 36.0% | +0.1 | +0.6% | 2.77 |
| Wolverhampton | 911 | 33.6% | 33.7% | −0.1 | −0.7% | 2.98 |
| Newcastle | 804 | 33.6% | 32.7% | +0.9 | +4.4% | 2.98 |
| Southwell | 746 | 32.8% | 33.9% | −1.1 | −5.8% | 3.05 |
| Chelmsford City | 451 | 31.9% | 35.1% | −3.2 | −12.4% | 3.13 |
| Dundalk | 454 | 31.1% | 32.2% | −1.1 | −6.9% | 3.21 |
Fair odds run from 2.77 at Kempton to 3.21 at Dundalk. If a Dundalk favourite is trading meaningfully shorter than that, the long-run evidence is against it.
Ground 4Non-handicap favourites on Polytrack are the costliest bet
Splitting by race type sharpens the Polytrack problem. In handicaps, Tapeta favourites broke even at 0.0% and Polytrack favourites returned −3.1%. In non-handicaps the gap widens: −2.4% on Tapeta against −10.6% on Polytrack.
Across all races, Tapeta favourites returned −0.6% and Polytrack favourites −5.6%. A short-priced maiden or conditions favourite on Polytrack is where the market has most consistently paid too much for certainty that was not there.
View the data: favourite return: handicaps vs other races
| Tapeta | Polytrack | |
|---|---|---|
| Handicaps | 0.0% | −3.1% |
| Non-handicaps | −2.4% | −10.6% |
| All races | −0.6% | −5.6% |
This fits how I like to bet. When the favourite is overbet, the value has to go somewhere, and it usually sits in the each-way and place markets on the runners behind it.
Ground 5Big-priced winners turn up slightly more often on Polytrack
Here the winners of every race are grouped by starting price. The three profiles look very alike, but winners at 20.0 or bigger came in 8.8% of Polytrack races against 7.5% on Tapeta, with turf at 8.5%.
Field size plays a part. Dundalk averaged 11.4 runners, the biggest fields of the six, while Chelmsford City averaged 9.1. Bigger fields give more chances for a longshot to find a clear run and also improve each-way terms.
View the data: winner's starting price by synthetic surface
| Under 4.0 | 4.0-9.9 | 10.0-19.9 | 20.0+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tapeta | 33.4% | 43.4% | 15.7% | 7.5% |
| Polytrack | 33.7% | 41.5% | 16.0% | 8.8% |
| Turf Flat | 32.6% | 42.7% | 16.2% | 8.5% |
Tapeta, by contrast, packs a little more of its winners into the middle band, which suits patient form study at sensible prices.
Where to look
- Oppose short Chelmsford favourites
Favourites there were priced at 35.1% but won 31.9%, returning −12.4%. I treat a Chelmsford market leader as something to beat rather than back.
- Respect Newcastle and Kempton leaders
Newcastle favourites returned +4.4% and Kempton's +0.6%, both close to or better than fair. A well-handicapped favourite at either course deserves a proper look.
- Go each-way at Dundalk
With 11.4 runners per race and favourites returning −6.9%, Dundalk's bigger fields reward place value over the market leader.
Questions bettors ask
Do favourites win more often on Tapeta or Polytrack?
Neither. Favourites won 33.3% on both surfaces, and the difference of 0.0 points sits well inside the 95% range of ±3.1 points.
Which all-weather course is best for favourites?
Kempton had the highest favourite win rate at 36.1%, and backing every favourite there returned +0.6% at the starting price. Course-level figures carry wide ranges, so I treat that as a lean rather than a rule.
Is it profitable to back all-weather favourites?
Not as a blanket approach. Favourites returned −0.6% on Tapeta and −5.6% on Polytrack overall, and non-handicap favourites on Polytrack returned −10.6%.
I'm Saskia van der Berg, based in Amsterdam, and I write the horse racing results and tips at horse-racing.tips — read through the going, the draw and the pace, never the price of the favourite.
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