Do Darts Players Win More in Their Home Country? Venue Data
Across 6,024 matches at nine PDC televised majors, home soil gives a small lift against the rating. It shows up most in English underdogs and Dutch players in the Netherlands.
Written by Maddie CroftDarts Betting Tips specialist
- Sport
- Darts
- Question
- Do darts players win more often than their rating suggests when the event is staged in their own country?
- Survey
- PDC televised majors 2015-2025 (nine events), 6,024 completed matches with venue attached
- +1.6English vs foreign players in England, points vs rating
- +0.7English vs foreign players abroad, points vs rating
- +2.5other nations on home soil, points vs rating
- 1,963English vs foreign matches played in England
The question is simple: when a PDC major is staged in a player's own country, does he win more often than his rating says he should? I worked through 6,024 completed matches from nine televised majors and compared each result with a pre-match rating expectation. It is the same thing I ask before any match on my darts tips page: is the crowd worth anything on the board?
The short answer is a small yes, and the effect is modest. English players facing foreign opposition in England won 50.6% of matches against a rating expectation of 49.0%. That is +1.6 points over 1,963 matches, and it drops to +0.7 abroad. Other nations on home soil show +2.5, but the sample is too thin to rely on.
Ground 1Home soil adds a point or two against the rating
Each row pairs what the rating expected with what actually happened, for matches between players of different nationalities. English players in England sit at 50.6% won against 49.0% expected, with a 95% range of ยฑ2.2. Outside England the same matchup went 49.1% against 48.4% expected over 468 matches.
The other host nations tell a similar story with more noise. On home soil they won 49.3% of 152 matches against 46.8% expected. Away from home they were almost exactly on their rating, at 51.6% against 51.5% over 2,677 matches.
Other nations = Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Austria.
View the data: rating expected vs actual: home and away
| Rating expected | Actually won | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| English players in England (1,963 matches) | 49.0% | 50.6% | ยฑ2.2 |
| English players outside England (468 matches) | 48.4% | 49.1% | ยฑ4.5 |
| Other nations on home soil (152 matches) | 46.8% | 49.3% | ยฑ7.9 |
| Same nations, away from home (2,677 matches) | 51.5% | 51.6% | ยฑ1.9 |
What I take from this is direction, not size. Home soil nudges the line, but the ยฑ7.9 range on the non-English home sample is far wider than the effect itself. I treat it as a small adjustment to a handicap, never as a reason to bet on its own.
Ground 2Dutch players thrive at home, German-speaking players do not
Split the other host nations apart and the picture changes from group to group. Dutch players won 59.4% of 69 home matches, a striking +9.8 points against the rating, compared with +0.2 away from home over 913 matches. Germany, Austria and Belgium go the other way, at 32.4% of 34 home matches, or โ6.9 points.
This is where the main caveat bites hardest. Most events are staged in England, so every home-soil row here rests on fewer than 100 matches. A handful of results can swing any of these numbers.
| Nation group | Home matches | Home win % | Home vs rating | Away matches | Away vs rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 69 | 59.4% | +9.8 | 913 | +0.2 |
| Germany, Austria, Belgium | 34 | 32.4% | โ6.9 | 486 | +0.1 |
| Scotland and Wales | 43 | 51.2% | +0.5 | 941 | โ0.5 |
| Ireland and N. Ireland | 6 | 16.7% | โ12.7 | 337 | +1.6 |
Home-soil samples are small (under 100 matches for every group); treat single rows as indicative only.
Scotland and Wales barely move, at +0.5 at home against โ0.5 away, and Ireland and Northern Ireland have only 6 home matches against foreign opposition. That is too few to judge. I note the Dutch figure, but I would want far more matches before trusting either extreme.
Ground 3English players travel well to Germany and the Netherlands
This chart follows English players across host countries against foreign opponents. England itself shows +1.6, but the biggest bars are abroad. Germany and Austria come in at +2.8 over 156 matches, and the Netherlands at +1.8 over 92, where English players won 55.4%.
The closer neighbours are flatter. Scotland and Wales show โ0.3 over 82 matches, and Ireland and Northern Ireland โ1.4 over 116. Belgium was left out at 22 matches.
Belgium (22 matches) left out as too small.
View the data: english players by host country
| Vs rating (points) | |
|---|---|
| England (1,963) | +1.6% |
| Scotland and Wales (82) | โ0.3% |
| Ireland and N. Ireland (116) | โ1.4% |
| Netherlands (92) | +1.8% |
| Germany and Austria (156) | +2.8% |
So a hostile or foreign crowd does not obviously hurt English players, and in German-speaking venues they did slightly better than rated. For a bettor, that cuts against the easy story that the home crowd always lifts the local player.
Ground 4The English home edge sits with underdogs, not favourites
The split inside England is where I found the most useful detail. As rating favourites against foreign opponents, English players won 63.4% of 948 matches against 62.7% expected, which is close to flat. As underdogs they won 38.6% of 1,015 against 36.1% expected. Most of the home lift sits in that second group.
Premier League nights in England show 52.0% over 250 matches, against 50.4% over 1,713 at the other majors in England. That gap is slight, and the Premier League field is the same small group of top players each week.
View the data: english players at home: where the edge shows
| Actual win share vs foreign opponents in England | |
|---|---|
| Premier League nights (250) | 52.0% |
| Other majors (1,713) | 50.4% |
| As rating favourite (948) | 63.4% |
| As rating underdog (1,015) | 38.6% |
From the overall 50.6% win rate, the fair odds for an English player against foreign opposition in England come out at 1.98. These are win rates measured against a rating, not against match prices, because none are available for these events. My use for this is narrow: an English outsider at an English venue gets a slightly kinder look in leg and set handicaps.
Where to look
- Favour home underdogs slightly
English underdogs in England won 38.6% against 36.1% expected, while favourites ran almost exactly to their rating. If I give home soil any credit, it goes to the outsider's handicap line.
- Discount small home samples
Every non-English home-soil group rests on fewer than 100 matches, and the combined range is ยฑ7.9. I note the Dutch +9.8, but I never price it as settled.
- Back English players abroad
English players were +2.8 against the rating in Germany and Austria and +1.8 in the Netherlands. A foreign crowd alone is no reason to oppose them.
Questions bettors ask
Do English darts players win more often at venues in England?
Slightly. Against foreign opponents in England they won 50.6% of 1,963 matches against a rating expectation of 49.0%, which is +1.6 points with a 95% range of ยฑ2.2.
Do Dutch darts players have a home advantage in the Netherlands?
In this data they won 59.4% of 69 home matches, +9.8 points against the rating, compared with +0.2 away from home. The home sample is small, so I treat it as indicative only.
Is the home edge bigger on Premier League nights?
A little. English players won 52.0% of 250 Premier League matches against foreign opponents in England, compared with 50.4% of 1,713 at the other majors held in England.
I'm Maddie Croft, based in Auckland, and I write the beginner-friendly darts tips at horse-racing.tips โ reading averages, doubles and momentum rather than the seedings.
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